“There are many reasons why wrapping our arms around uncertainty and giving it a big hug will help us become better decision-makers. Here are two of them. First, “I’m not sure” is simply a more accurate representation of the world. Second, and related, when we accept that we can’t be sure, we are less likely to fall into the trap of black-and-white thinking.”
“Once a belief is lodged, it becomes difficult to dislodge. It takes on a life of its own, leading us to notice and seek out evidence confirming our belief, rarely challenge the validity of confirming evidence, and ignore or work hard to actively discredit information contradicting the belief. This irrational, circular information-processing pattern is called motivated reasoning. The way we process new information is driven by the beliefs we hold, strengthening them. Those strengthened beliefs then drive how we process further information, and so on.”
Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
My thoughts:
I never thought of living life like it is a poker game before, because I thought what is the point of risking everything on a game of chance. As always, thinking something is one way closes off the possibility that there is another way to think of it. Annie Duke is a former professional poker player. She won more than $4 million in tournament poker before retiring from the game. Before that she studied Cognitive Psychology. Here's the Annie Duke quote that opened a window for me to a new depth for decision making (can't wait to try it out in some games:-)); “In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
I haven't read anything except some of her quotes yet, but you can bet with relative certainty that I will be reading Annie Duke's book and more about her and how to transform my way of reasoning from "motivated Thinking" into uncertainty in the very near future!
“If you put individuals together in the right way,
such that some individuals can use their reasoning powers to disconfirm the claims of others,
and all individuals feel some common bond or shared fate that allows them to interact civilly,
you can create a group that ends up producing good reasoning as an emergent property of the social system.
This is why it’s so important to have intellectual and ideological diversity within any group or institution whose goal is to find truth.”
Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Cheers
Jeanne
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